International oil prices decline 1.84%… Nasdaq climbs as Nvidia hits all-time high
Global markets hold steady over the holidays; focus turns to foreign inflows surrounding Samsung Electronics’ earnings
Key Market Trends
① Middle East supply recovery pushes oil prices down 1.84%
International oil prices retreated as Middle Eastern crude exports increased and Saudi Arabia lowered its supply pricing for Asian markets.
In September, average daily crude exports from the Middle East hit 18.3 million barrels, surpassing the pre-war level of 18 million. Shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz have also recovered to 80% of pre-war volumes.
Saudi Arabia reduced its November supply price for Asian customers by $3 per barrel compared to the previous month.
While military tensions between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels remain a volatility factor, WTI crude settled at $89.43, a decline of 1.84%.
② Treasury yields climb back to 5.31%, yet tech remains strong
Despite the drop in oil prices, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%.
Pressure on yields was driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal spending, financial instability in France, and a rise in the ISM services price index.
The ISM services price index rose from 72.6 to 74, marking its highest level in four years and two months.
Nevertheless, AI-related technology stocks saw continued buying interest, with Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Broadcom, and Meta all posting gains.
Nvidia closed at an all-time high, spearheading the rally in the tech sector.
③ Holiday markets calm; focus on domestic semiconductor flows
U.S. markets maintained a generally positive trend during the holiday break, with significant gains in Taiwan and Japan.
Following the U.S. employment report, the consensus has shifted toward a potential pause in interest rate hikes in October, and oil prices currently sit below pre-holiday levels.
In contrast to the recent rally in U.S. chipmakers, the gains for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remain relatively limited.
Since September, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have risen 6.2% and 10%, respectively. Over the same period, Micron climbed 12%, while SK hynix’s ADR surged by approximately 19%.
Market Outlook
Global markets remained relatively stable during the holiday period. Expectations for an October rate freeze have gained weight following the U.S. jobs report, and international oil prices have softened. While headlines regarding the Middle East and U.S. policy persist, they have yet to escalate to a level that would shift the broader market trajectory.
The immediate test for the Korean market is the release of Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings. Although some estimates have been revised due to currency fluctuations and performance-based bonus allocations, the brokerage community is still discussing the possibility of the company topping 100 trillion won in sales revenue.
The point of contention remains the relative underperformance of domestic semiconductor stocks. Unlike the strength of U.S. peers, the gains for Samsung and SK hynix have been capped. This is less a reflection of the industry’s health and more a result of foreign selling concentrated on large-cap stocks amid pressure from interest rates and oil prices.
Whether Samsung’s earnings report serves as a catalyst to resolve this relative neglect of domestic chipmakers—and whether foreign capital flows change before and after the announcement—will be critical. On the KOSDAQ, investors should monitor whether the momentum in semiconductor supply chain firms, telecommunications equipment, and secondary battery stocks continues post-holiday.
Today’s Checkpoints
Samsung Electronics: Monitoring foreign capital inflows and potential recovery from relative underperformance surrounding the preliminary earnings release.
Semiconductors: Assessing how Nvidia’s record highs and U.S. semiconductor strength translate into the Korean market.
U.S. Treasury Yields: The 10-year yield has climbed back to 5.31%.
International Oil: Prices have fallen below $90; focus remains on the sustainability of supply recovery in the Middle East.
Key Indicators
Dollar Index: 102.15 (+0.22%)
International Oil: $89.43 (-1.84%)
Volatility Index (VIX): 15.52 (+1.37%)
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.31%
MSCI Korea Index: -0.22%
Source: Market Man’s Stock Story (t.me/shmstory)
YouTube: Market Man TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004
This article is a restructured version of content from 'Market Man’s Stock Story' on Telegram, published with the author's consent. All content is subject to errors and does not constitute investment advice; it should not be used as a basis for trading decisions. The contents of this post cannot be used as a legal basis under any circumstances.
