US Markets Remain Largely Stable Over Holiday; OpenAI Revenue Controversy Settles Within a Day
Upward Pressure on Interest Rates and Oil Prices Pauses; Market Eyes Supply-Demand Recovery for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix
Key Market Trends
① OpenAI Concerns Subside Quickly; AI Growth Trajectory Intact
AI-related stocks saw temporary weakness during the holiday period following reports that OpenAI’s revenue projections were revised downward from $70 billion to $50 billion.
However, concerns were quickly quelled as it became clear the revision stemmed from changes in accounting methodology rather than an actual deterioration in performance.
Bloomberg reported that OpenAI’s annualized revenue is still on track to reach or exceed $70 billion by year-end.
While the earnings growth of AI companies remains robust, the market’s sensitive reaction to the report underscores lingering caution regarding potential overinvestment in the sector.
② Interest Rate and Oil Price Hikes Cool Off; Middle East Situation Remains a Variable
The surge in interest rates has moderated as the U.S. concluded its three-day schedule of large-scale Treasury bond issuance.
Oil prices have also seen capped upside, as statements suggesting no imminent attacks on Iran before the midterm elections and potential increases in Russian diesel supply have dampened volatility.
While news of an airport strike in Saudi Arabia emerged over the weekend, the market reaction in both Saudi equities and global oil prices remained limited.
Nevertheless, with U.S.-Iran negotiations still ongoing and reports of tanker attacks persisting, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East requires continued monitoring.
③ Earnings Season Intensifies; CPI Data in Focus This Week
The U.S. earnings season kicks into gear this week, starting with UnitedHealth and major banking stocks.
Market consensus anticipates corporate earnings to grow by approximately 30%, with the possibility that actual results may exceed these forecasts.
Historical seasonality also supports sentiment, as the stock market has risen in 21 out of the last 23 instances during the fourth quarter of midterm election years.
However, given lingering pressures from inflation and interest rates, this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release could trigger renewed volatility in Treasury yields and growth stocks.
Checkpoints for the Coming Week
U.S. memory stocks struggled over the holiday period. Initially, the OpenAI controversy weighed on the sector, followed by a rotation of capital from hardware to software, leading to a sell-off in semiconductor stocks.
Domestically, the most critical factor is the supply-demand balance following the release of Samsung Electronics' earnings and the conclusion of its share buyback program. SK hynix has also seen increased price volatility, exacerbated by persistent foreign selling. As the debate over the "peak" of the memory cycle has been ongoing for over a year, this is less a new negative catalyst and more a reflection of existing concerns intersecting with liquidity instability.
Conversely, expectations that the supply shortage in memory may persist longer than anticipated remain prevalent. If interest rates and oil prices stabilize, it is essential to monitor whether the valuation appeal of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix—relative to their earnings—regains market traction.
There are no clear signals yet that the market has transitioned into a full-scale bear market. While index volatility may continue due to interest rate and oil price burdens, it is time to focus on whether a stock-picking rally will persist, centered on sectors with improving earnings and recent outperformers in policy and investment-related themes.
Source: Market Analyst's Stock Talk (t.me/shmstory)
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