Interest Rate and Oil Price Pressures Coupled with Semiconductor Woes… KOSPI Breaks Below Range to Test 200-Day Moving Average
Supply-Demand Vacuum Follows Conclusion of Samsung Electronics’ Share Buyback… KOSDAQ Posts Largest Drop Since August 21
Major Market Trends
① Domestic Markets Buckle Under Supply Pressure Despite Resilience Abroad
During the recent holiday period, U.S. markets posted modest gains despite controversies surrounding OpenAI’s financial performance.
Concerns over OpenAI’s sales revenue quickly subsided as it was revealed that the projected figures stemmed from changes in accounting methods; however, caution regarding capital raising by AI firms persists.
Market sensitivity toward expanded AI investment has heightened, fueled by noise such as an Nvidia-backed AI startup withdrawing its IPO plans.
In the Middle East, ongoing skirmishes without a clear ceasefire agreement are keeping upward pressure on oil prices and interest rates, thereby limiting buying appetite in the domestic market.
② Memory Stocks Struggle Over Holiday; Semiconductor Volatility Persists
The sluggish performance of memory stocks in the U.S. during the holiday period weighed heavily on domestic semiconductor heavyweights.
Reports emerged regarding China’s CXMT potentially launching next-generation DDR5 within the year, alongside continued downward revisions for PC shipment forecasts.
Following rumors of production cuts for Apple’s iPhone 18, projections of weakening PC demand have increased vigilance regarding how rising memory prices will impact end-user demand.
Major large-cap stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, saw significant declines, dragging down the KOSPI.
③ Supply Vacuum Post-Buyback; Four Consecutive Days of Declines
The KOSPI has now fallen for four consecutive trading sessions since last week.
Notably, three of these sessions coincided with the functional conclusion of Samsung Electronics’ share buyback program, a period where the primary buying force that had absorbed foreign selling significantly weakened.
While the possibility of additional shareholder return measures remains, the market remains wary that a supply-demand vacuum may persist until concrete details are disclosed.
With new capital inflows restricted, the KOSPI broke out of its recent sideways range to fall near the 200-day moving average, while the KOSDAQ suffered its sharpest decline since August 21.
Supply, Demand, and Sectors
Foreign investors were net sellers of electrical/electronics, finance, and machinery on the KOSPI, while net buying retail, transportation/warehousing, and construction.
On the KOSDAQ, foreigners net sold electrical/electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals.
Institutional investors net sold electrical/electronics and construction on the KOSPI, while net buying finance, transport equipment, transportation/warehousing, and pharmaceuticals.
On the KOSDAQ, institutions net sold machinery and electrical/electronics, while net buying medical/precision instruments, non-metallic minerals, and chemicals.
By sector, shipping, insurance, airlines, and certain holding companies rose. Conversely, the KOSDAQ saw weakness in secondary batteries (EV batteries), robotics, semiconductor materials/components/equipment, and entertainment.
Market Analyst’s Perspective
The domestic market has retreated for four straight sessions since last week. Unlike the U.S. markets, which remained relatively firm over the holiday, the domestic bourse was hit by a combination of interest rate and oil price pressures, semiconductor concerns, and a supply-demand vacuum.
In particular, as Samsung Electronics’ share buyback effectively ended, the support wall against foreign selling collapsed. With limited new capital entering the market, the index is showing increased volatility on days lacking clear positive catalysts.
However, setting aside supply-demand factors, there has been no significant shift in corporate earnings outlooks. While the "memory peak" debate and AI investment concerns are recurring themes, no new material has emerged that would fundamentally alter recent profit projections.
The KOSPI has entered oversold territory following recent losses, and the KOSDAQ's decline has widened due to consecutive selling by investment trusts. For the time being, stock-specific differentiation is likely to prevail over broad index movements. Investors should closely monitor sectors showing recent strength and individual stocks with sustained expectations for earnings improvement.
Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory
YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004
This article was reconstructed from a post on the Market Man’s Stock Story Telegram channel with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell; it should not be used as a basis for trading. The contents of this post shall not be used as legal evidence under any circumstances.
