Anthropic IPO Reports Revive AI Sentiment, Fueling Semiconductor Rallies
WTI Falls 1.46%, U.S. 10-Year Yield Hovers at 4.98%: Pressure from Rates and Oil Eases Ahead of FOMC
Key Market Trends
① Oil Prices and Bond Yields Stabilize Concurrently Amid Hopes for Mideast De-escalation
Investor sentiment improved as international crude prices, which weighed heavily on the stock market late last week, pulled back.
Diplomatic engagement among mediators continued while immediate signs of additional military strikes against Iran remained absent. Following reports of a Qatari mediation team visiting Iran, officials from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan also met and agreed to strengthen cooperation, including on peace and security.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell as much as 3% during intraday trading before paring losses to settle down 1.46% at $101.76.
Treasury yields also stabilized alongside falling oil prices. European sovereign bond anxieties eased after Moody's affirmed France's sovereign credit rating at Aa3. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury held below the 5% threshold at 4.98%.
Views on interest rates remain divided ahead of the FOMC meeting. While Bank of America forecasts a rate hike, market consensus leans toward a freeze. Rabobank noted that given recent declines in yields, moderate inflation growth, and mixed employment data, the Federal Reserve is under no pressure to rush into tightening. Deutsche Bank projected that even if the Fed holds rates steady, its accompanying message will likely remain hawkish.
② Anthropic Prepares IPO, Boosting AI and Semiconductor Sentiment
Reports that Anthropic is making smooth headway with its initial public offering preparations spurred buying in artificial intelligence-related stocks.
Anthropic reportedly filed its registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday. Freedom Capital noted that the long-awaited market debut has exerted a positive influence on AI investment sentiment.
The public offering of a major AI firm has drawn keen attention because it will provide concrete financial disclosures—such as revenue, earnings, and cash flow—that the market has long demanded.
Semiconductor stocks also drew support from an upbeat memory outlook issued by Bank of America. BoA emphasized the critical importance of memory chips, forecasting even tighter memory supplies through 2027 and 2028.
Major technology heavyweights, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom, and Tesla, advanced.
③ Big Tech Earnings Loosely Reaffirm 'AI Monetization'
Major technology giants, including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, are scheduled to release their earnings reports this week.
Market focus has recently shifted away from the sheer scale of AI investments toward actual revenue, operating profit, and cash flow. Saxo noted that strong AI demand alone is no longer enough to reassure investors, underscoring the need to prove tangible profitability.
Meta announced a $35 billion financing plan to secure funds for AI infrastructure investments. Including a potential $60 billion at-the-market equity offering program down the line, the company is securing a total financing capacity of up to $95 billion.
Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson projected that the stock market will resume its upward trajectory once major uncertainties—such as AI funding concerns, the midterm elections, and a tightening macroeconomic environment—are cleared. He set a short-term downside support level at 7,100–7,200 and a baseline year-end target of 8,000.
Yardeni Research similarly maintained its view that pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities, citing strong corporate earnings and solid economic fundamentals despite acknowledging the potential for continued volatility.
Market Strategist's Perspective
Recent movements in the domestic stock market are driven primarily by three core variables: interest rates, oil prices, and the ongoing debate surrounding AI investments. Key calendar events later this week will offer crucial clarity on the trajectory of these factors.
In particular, the upcoming earnings releases and conference calls for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix carry immense weight. While headline earnings figures are important, market attention will likely center on management commentary regarding the memory industry outlook and AI demand over the next one to two years. It will also be critical to gauge how wide the gap is between recent pessimistic market forecasts and the actual on-the-ground perspectives of industry insiders.
Shareholder return policies also warrant close attention. The domestic market has recently experienced weakened liquidity due to declining customer deposits, limited buying capacity from pension funds, and a persistent net-selling bias among foreign investors. The resumption of shareholder-friendly initiatives, such as share buybacks, could help offset prevailing market liquidity shortfalls.
Much of the recent negative news has already been priced in during the recent correction phase. Although short-term volatility may persist, investors should continue to monitor core market leaders, earnings turnaround candidates, and stocks with accumulating institutional buying.
Today's Checkpoints
Oil Prices: WTI declines to $101.76; monitoring for further stabilization following Middle Eastern diplomatic contacts.
FOMC: Amid prevailing expectations of a rate freeze, focus shifts to the possibility of a "hawkish hold" and the future rate path.
AI: Assessing whether Anthropic’s IPO drive alleviates lingering concerns over AI investment returns and monetization.
Semiconductors: Evaluation of projected 2027–2028 memory supply shortages and the performance of U.S. chip stocks.
Domestic Market: Mid-to-long-term industry outlook and shareholder return messages to be delivered during Samsung Electronics and SK hynix conference calls.
Key Indicators
Dollar Index: 102.02 (+0.21%)
International Crude Oil (WTI): $101.76 (-1.46%)
Volatility Index (VIX): 18.39 (-5.45%)
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.98%
MSCI Korea Index: +0.97%
Overnight Futures: +2.63%
Source: Market Strategist's Stock Story (t.me/shmstory)
YouTube: Market Strategist TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004
This article has been reorganized from a Telegram post by "Market Strategist's Stock Story" with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell, nor should it be used as a basis for financial transactions. Under no circumstances can the contents of this post be used as legal evidence.
